The Daily Background

USA Today/Gallup has the first poll we’ve seen in months (at least since the end of the primary) that shows McCain beating Obama:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among “likely” voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of “registered” voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

What’s going on here?

I’ll offer one possible explanation: it’s a weekend poll, and weekend pols are notoriously unreliable, because a signifigant number of voters aren’t at home to answer phone calls from pollsters. Amplifying the problem is the fact that McCain voters are more likely to be older and more– how should I put this?– sedentary and are likely to stay home by their landline over the weekend, whereas voters more likely to vote for Obama are out and about between Friday and Sunday when the poll was conducted.

But still, even if McCain’s lead within the margin of error is a weekend anomoly, how come it’s so close– especially after McCain’s epicly awful week last week? Anyone got another explanation? Leave a comment.

Update: The Huffington Post points out that Obama leads by 9 points in Gallup’s other poll, the daily tracking one.

Filed under: Z-TDB Blog