The Daily Background

Hillary Clinton on why she won’t drop out of the race even though it’s almost June:

“My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don’t understand it.”

Okay, a couple of things. First, citing RFK’s tragic assassination as a reason to stay in the race is an incredibly stupid thing to say. It doesn’t matter how she meant it, it’s just the type of statement that you don’t make if you’re running for president (and especially against somebody who bears many similarities to both late Kennedys).

But even if you take her word for it– that she wasn’t alluding to the possibility of an Obama assassination and was instead just alluding to the unpredictableness of politics– her statement was still totally wrong. Here’s why.

Clinton was comparing RFK to Obama. That comparison isn’t valid because while Obama currently enjoys an insurmountable majority of all pledged delegates, RFK didn’t:

At the time of his death, Kennedy was significantly behind Vice President Hubert Humphrey in convention delegate support, but this has not deterred many from the belief that Kennedy would have ultimately secured the nomination following his victory in the California primary… Only thirteen states held primaries that year, meaning that most delegates at the Democratic convention could choose a candidate based on their personal preference.

The primary season in 1968 was also significantly shorter than the one today– the first primary, New Hampshire, wasn’t until March 12th (this year it was on January 8th). Kennedy didn’t get into the race until March 16th of the year of the election. Clinton hopped into the race on January 20th the year before the election (and her rivals announced around that time as well). To claim that this year’s ultra-long campaign is somehow normal when compared to 1968’s three month primary is either downright dishonest or ignorant.

Clinton was also comparing herself to her husband in saying that he hadn’t won the nomination until June, meaning that it was not abnormal for a primary season to last this long without a resolution. This is totally wrong too. Here’s why.

Bill Clinton didn’t wrap up the nomination in June. In February, Hillary made a similar claim which prompted me to do a little digging back through the Lexis Nexis to find out when it was that he actually did secure the Democratic nomination. I found that “[news]papers were referring to Clinton as the “presumptive nominee” months before Bill supposedly clinched it in June.” Here are a few examples of the media referring to Bill as the presumptive nominee, a term reserved for when a candidate has locked up his or her party’s nomination…

The Boston Globe, March 22nd, 1992:

Like other presumptive nominees, however, Clinton’s triumph merely gives him the opportunity to experience a fundamental truth about democracy’s most grueling experience: the climbing only gets tougher the higher you go.

The Boston Globe, April 18th, 1992:

The season has opened on vice presidential speculation since last week’s New York primary pegged Bill Clinton the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

USA Today, April 29th, 1992:

On the most basic political level, Clinton’s victory - his best showing in six weeks - cemented him as the party’s presumptive nominee. It may even quiet the sizable chorus of Democrats who have been warning that Clinton is a fat target to send against Bush.

Furthermore, as Open Left correctly observes:

1. The 1992 primaries ended on June 2, 1992, a day earlier than this year. Several states, including California, had primaries that day. It was not mid-June.

2. According to wikipedia: “Clinton effectively won the Democratic Party’s nomination after winning the New York Primary in early April.”

3. Clinton’s chief rival was Paul Tsongas who dropped out of the race in mid-May, 1992.

4. According to polls, Clinton led in every remaining state except California where Jerry Brown was polling well (his home state). Brown was not going to catch Clinton for the nomination in any scenario.

5. From the May 11, 1992 New York Times: “Aides to Mr. Clinton say that in most of the remaining primaries he will ignore the former Governor of California, Edmund G. Brown Jr., and will try to give voters a clearer sense of his own personality and his positions on major issues, in preparation for a general election campaign against President Bush.”

P.S.– Check out Keith Olbermann’s Special Comment on Clinton’s remarks here.

Filed under: Z-TDB Blog