The Daily Background

No sooner had I written part three in my series part three in my series do I see the latest CNN/WMUR poll. First, let’s summarize the points I made in the aforementioned previous post cautioning against believing early post-caucus polling results in NH:

1. Many polls that didn’t show an Obama bounce were conducted partially before the outcome of Iowa was even known
2. Many polls that didn’t show an Obama bounce were conducted at a time that Obama’s supporters were least likely to be home and available for telephone interviews (voters under 40 do tend to, you know, do things on Friday nights and Saturdays)
3. Historical post-Iowa bounces haven’t materialized instantly after caucus, instead it takes a few days for them to build up

CNN/WMUR had released a Friday-Saturday poll I mentioned in the above post which showed the race essentially tied between Obama and Clinton, with virtually no bounce to be seen. Now they’ve released a new poll taken over Saturday and Sunday which shows dramatically different results. The results are as follows:

Dear Mark Penn,

You wanted it, you got it.

Update: A new Rasmussen poll released Sunday also shows Obama at 39%, with Clinton at 27%.

Update 2: USA Today/Gallup has Obama at 41% versus Clinton at 28%.

Update 3: A new Strategic Vision poll shows Obama at 38%, Clinton at 29%.

Update 4: ARG has Obama 39%, Clinton 28%.

Filed under: Z-TDB Blog