The Daily Background

If you haven’t stopped looking at polls already, please do.

The January 3rd Iowa caucus is known in polling circles as notoriously difficult to poll because it largely depends on two wildly unpredictable factors: voter turnout (only about 6-7% of the state actually shows up for their caucuses) and second choices (if a candidate like Biden does not receive 15% or so of the vote to be considered “viable,” his supporters must support their second choice).

Plus, if there is a precinct tie (a situation not at all unheard of), caucus officials roll dice to see who they should report to the state election bureau as the winner. Hardly predictable.

So the caucus is extremely hard to poll in the first place. Now, you tack on top of that the holiday situation, and you’ve got a real polling mess on your hands.

No reputable polling organization would normally conduct business between Christmas and New Year’s for two reasons. First, people go on vacations and the people who are left behind don’t necessarily represent all the voting blocks. Second, there’s that incalculable “holiday buzz” that may make voters say they’ll vote for one candidate when in reality, when they show up to caucus (if they show up at all), they end up supporting somebody else.

As for New Hampshire polling, since it is the second major primary season contest (and since it follows the Iowa caucus by a scant five days), I suspect its independence as a poll will be diminished and it’ll be in large part reactionary towards the Iowa caucus. In other words, there could be enough of a shift (by shift, we’re talking about 5-10 points here, up or down, for any candidate– enough to be a game changer because the race in the granite state is relatively close) after Iowa to render all NH polling up to this point completely moot.

I made a decision early on in the primary process not to post individual polls and write about them, but I’ve noticed that I’m one of the few bloggers that’s made that choice. Regardless, I really wouldn’t put any stock in the polls that are coming out of early states right now, unless you’re trying to get surprised on the night of January 3rd.

Update: I almost forgot. There is also the possibility that one or more of the candidates could do something truly game-changing, like slip up and say something that changes the media narrative around them (Dean-scream, anyone?). In other words, the race isn’t over until it’s over.

Filed under: Z-TDB Blog