The Daily Background

The Administration will release parts of a new NIE today, which, according to the NYT, will give “a bleak outlook on the chances Mr. Maliki can meet milestones intended to promote unity in Iraq.” One source quoted by the Times says the report, which will be issued this morning, will say “that there’s been little political progress to date, and it’s very gloomy on the chances for political progress in the future.”

As the end of the Congressional recess draws closer, the debate over Iraq policy will only intensify, and the new intelligence assessment, called “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability” is likely to play an important role in that discussion. Officials said the assessment concluded that Mr. Maliki retained support among Shiite groups in part because putting together a new government would be arduous.
[…]
The report, which was intended to help anticipate events over the next 6 to 12 months, is “more dire in its assessments” than the administration has been in its own internal discussions, according to one senior official who has read it. But the report also warns, as Mr. Bush did in a speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars on Wednesday, that an early withdrawal would lead to more chaos.

“It doesn’t take a policy position,” one official said. “But it leaves you with the sense that what we’ve been doing hasn’t been working, but we can’t let up, or it’ll get worse.”

Filed under: Z-TDB Blog