The Daily Background
| Iraq escalation: Is there any way McCain can lose?
by Arlen Parsa
Even if President Bush escalates the conflict in Iraq by sending in several thousand more targets troops into the middle of Iraq’s civil war, and he is likely to, it may not be enough for Senator McCain. McCain of course (along with Senator Lieberman) has been the most outspoken voice calling for more troops in Iraq- a deeply unpopular move.
However, McCain is calling for a larger number of troops than some experts, such as former Secretary of State and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Colin Powell feel is even possible at this point. President Bush may order a smaller number of troops into Iraq even than was expected (some reports indicate that the President will order 10,000 troops more, versus the earlier guess of perhaps 20,000 more- both of these are less than McCain’s 30,000 or 35,000 proposals Update: he says 25,000 “minimum” now). If this happens, experts such as Washington Post chief military correspondent Thomas E. Ricks (author of the excellent 2006 book Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq) predict it will make little or no impact on the ground.
When this fails to make a difference and the situation gets worse in Iraq- as it will- McCain will be able to stand back and say “hey, I didn’t want this, I wanted more troops…. if you had only done what I said, things would be fine by now.” This is, of course, complete bullshit, but he’ll be able to say it nonetheless. And, since the press loves to portray the Arizona Senator as a “maverick,” he’ll be able to get away with supporting something that less than a quarter of the public supports (namely advocating sending more troops into Iraq). See this item from CNN:
On the same day the top Democrats in Congress said a troop surge in Iraq would “stretch our military to the breaking point,” Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain reiterated his support of increasing U.S. forces in the war-torn country and said they must be ’significant and sustained’.
“The worst of all worlds would be a small, short surge of U.S. forces,” McCain said Friday during a speech at the American Enterprise Institute. “We tried small surges in the past and they’ve been ineffective because our commanders lack the forces necessary to hold territory after it was cleared.”
He’ll be able to look back on this time, when he’s running for President and say something along the lines of “I was always serious about Iraq: and sometimes I said things that were unpopular, but I said what I knew in my heart was right and didn’t let political calculation factor into that.” Blah blah blah. We’ll know that it’s bull, but he’ll be able to say it. And it’ll only bolster his “maverick” or “rugged individual” credentials (hah).
So basically, if Bush doesn’t escalate Iraq by sending in more troops, McCain wins on the “I told you so.” If Bush sends less troops into Iraq than what McCain wants (this is what I’m predicting will happen), McCain wins on the “I told you so.” If Bush sends the exact number of troops into Iraq that McCain wants (experts say this is not feasible), McCain wins because it’s what he wants to happen and thinks will “fix” Iraq. Is there any way McCain can lose?
