The Daily Background

Let’s talk ‘08 announcement timing strategy. I’ve written some about the strategic timing of Vilsack’s announcement- he announced early because he knew he’d get good media coverage. The more announcements that go on, the less coverage they get because it becomes old hat (unless it’s somebody really big). So Vilsack, a decidedly second-tier candidate, shuffled in at the right time and, as I say in our new Handicapping the 2008 Democrats feature, “benefited immeasurably from early announcement.”

Now, there are some who take the complete opposite tactic. People who already have high name recognition (and probably thus hardened attitudes- high favorables and unfavorables as the case may be) can afford to wait a greater amount of time because they generally have less trouble with fundraising and getting press coverage. Two good examples of this type of candidate are Al Gore and Newt Gingrich, both of whom say they have not decided to run but have not ruled it out. We already know Gore’s story, but as far as Gingrich goes, the former Republican House Speaker recently said that he’ll jump in the race in fall 2007 if he doesn’t see a clear front-runner in the Republican field (our Handicapping the 2008 Republicans feature has been updated accordingly). Perhaps by then, Newt’s hair will all be the same color (white) as well.

The exception to the well-known-candidates-hop-in-late rule is Senator Clinton. She’ll announce in January because even though she’s Everybody Already Knows^tm that she’s running, it’s getting to the point where she needs to start her national game in earnest and in the words of some Smart People^tm she risks looking aloof the longer it goes with an announcement with everybody knowing that she’s running.

Other candidates are planning their announcements based on external factors, like for instance the expiration of their current jobs. For instance, Republican Mitt ‘I’ve always hated gays, I swear‘ Romney, Governor of Massachusetts is waiting until January 4th when his term ends. This way he can announce being known as the former Governor of Massachusetts, rather than the current Governor of Massachusetts (which will obviously help him with the somewhat dull witted conservative primary voter- of which there are many). So Romney will probably announce shortly after his term expires and he gets that all-valuable “former” next name.

I’ve already written about the timing of Obama’s announcement.

Let’s skip over everyone else and come right to the candidate who is going to make the next announcement: John Edwards. The former 1-term Democratic Senator from North Carolina probably benefited from John Warner dropping out of the presumed Democratic field, as the less southerners there were in the running, the more valuable a commodity he would become, if purely for geographical reasons. Edwards has positioned himself as one of the most authoritative voices on poverty in America, and has gotten great support from unions and organized labor as well. When will the 2004 candidate announce? The last week of December- mere days away. Why on earth will he announce then? New York Times political guru Adam Nagourney explained, in a brief piece from yesterday’s paper:

If any more evidence was needed that the Bush administration’s response to Hurricane Katrina will play a prominent role in Democratic efforts to take back the White House, it has arrived. Former Senator John Edwards will announce his second presidential bid next week in the storm-ravaged Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans.

[…]
… perplexing, at least from a conventional point of view, is why Mr. Edwards would announce his candidacy in the last week of the year, a dead time for news, when it can be hard to win voters’ attention.

Democrats said his campaign was gambling that the television networks and cable news programs would find New Orleans a compelling setting in a week when they were desperate for news and when many Americans would be in front of their television sets, albeit looking for football more than politics.

It’s an interesting strategy, no doubt, and one that future candidates will no doubt be watching closely for the first hints of success or failure. On the one hand, the political climate will be virtually dead with no news-makers in Washington; symptomatic of the greater news environment, where little else but holiday-themed “feel good” stories will be available. Moods are better during the new years and holiday time of year, but will public good will translate into a soft warm and fuzziness (and more importantly much-needed hard numbers) towards the newest ‘08 candidate? Well, we won’t have much longer to wait until we find out.

Filed under: Presidential election, Z-TDB Blog