The Daily Background

As promised, this is the second in a two-part series. Check out the first part: Handicapping the 2008 Republicans. In no particular order:

Hillary Clinton (NY Senator)

Status: Formed exploratory committee, unknown formal announcement date.

High name recognition, but also extremely strong unfavorable ratings among conservatives. There is the theory that a Clinton nomination would rally the Republicans around whoever their anti-Hilary is. Voted for the war, and she has not taken a high profile in the Senate on much of any issue. Risk of being stale (everybody knows her), and too centrist. Will have high level of support among African Americans because of who she is married to. Happens to be a woman. Has said she made a mistake by voting for the war. Is intimidated by the next person on this list.

Barack Obama (IL Senator)

Status: Formed exploratory committee, will announce February 10th.

Low name recognition and unfavorables but this is changing. Experience will be an issue brought up by virtually everybody, as he was elected to the Senate in 2004 before serving as a state legislator and civil rights attorney in Illinois. Will have crazy level of Netroots support after he announces. Happens to be black.

Joe Biden (DE Senator)

Status: Has formally announced.

Despite frequent television appearances, has low nationwide support. Has foreign policy cred, but may be too bland and boring- very centrist. Talks like a Senator.

Al Gore (Former VP, climate activist)

Status: Won’t rule out running but says he’s not planning on it

High name recognition, has worked hard to change the media narrative about him. If he jumps in the race, he can afford to do so late, as raising money or name recognition will not be a problem for him. Would have crazy level of Netroots support if he ran. Would get nuts amount of support from environmental groups.

John Kerry (MA Senator)

Status: NOT running

High name recognition, low favorable rating. Obviously won’t get the nomination again no matter what.

Wes Clark (Former 4-star General, NATO commander)

Status: Has said he’ll decide after the midterms

Low name recognition and support despite his late entry into the 2004 race. Obviously has military cred and foreign policy cred/Iraq cred, and also has Netroots support due to his PAC and personal commitment to the Netroots. He’s kind of short. Has worked to help a bunch of Congressional campaigns. Also has been a military analyst for Fox News, which has probably given him some amount of conservative support.

John Edwards (Former NC Senator)

Status: Formally announced

Has positioned himself as a leading figure on poverty in America and wants to have the Clinton-level support among African Americans. Has great numbers in Iowa, poor numbers everywhere else. Will have crazy level of Netroots support, along with formidable Labor/Union support. One of the few national Dems from the south.

Bill Richardson (Governor of New Mexico)

Status: Formed exploratory committee

Will have foreign policy cred, due to work as former UN Amb. Also will have the most cred of anybody running on energy issues due to his role as Clinton-era Secretary of Energy. One of the more powerful and popular governors. Happens to be Hispanic, and will garner high levels of support from said demographic. One of the few national Dems from the south/southwest.

Al Sharpton (Civil Rights activist)

Status: Could jump in if nobody else is strong enough on issues he wants raised.

High name recognition, high unfavorables among conservatives, but less of a polarizing figure than he has been in the past. If he gets in the race, he won’t be running to win, but rather to influence the election and force other candidates to get stronger on issues like Iraq and civil rights.

Dennis Kucinich (Ohio Congressman)

Status: Has formally announced.

Low name recognition, seen as too liberal to win. Major issue is Iraq- wants immediate withdrawal. If he starts getting real support (unlikely), his career as Mayor of Cleveland will come under more media scrutiny.

Chris Dodd (CT Senator)

Status: Has formally announced.

Low name recognition, from a north-eastern state. May just be “running” for Vice President, so to speak. Long-time Senator.

Tom Vilsack (IA Governor)

Status: Has formally announced

Benefited immeasurably from early announcement, garnering great press. Has shit numbers in his home state of Iowa, which also happens to have one of the early primaries. Centrist, has good life story- adopted as orphan, etc. Is seen as a good Vice Presidential candidate for some other top-tier candidates.

Mark Warner (Former VA Governor)

Status: Announced he would not run after heavy speculation,

One of the few southern candidates and as a former Governor was seen as a possible top-tier candidate. Presumed to be running but he dropped out in fall 2006.

Filed under: Presidential election, Z-TDB Blog