The Daily Background

I’ll be updating this list as statuses change and candidates drop out or appear. I’ll also be running a similar feature on Democratic candidates as well in the near future. Without further, here’s a basic list of of each vaguely credible GOP candidate interested in running for President in 2008, and their basic weaknesses. Part two of this two part series can be found here: Handicapping the 2008 Democrats. In no particular order:

Rudy Giuliani (Former NYC Mayor)

Status: Formed exploratory committee.

Too liberal on social issues for the Republican base (gay equality/immigration/abortion/etc). Family values” crowd will not like him due to his multiple divorces/lifestyle. Southerners not impressed by his credentials as Mayor of NYC. Entire political credibility based on single event/time period.

John McCain (Senator from Arizona)

Status: Formed exploratory committee.

He’ll be 72 in 2008. Right wingers don’t trust him- they think he’s secretly more liberal than they could ever tolerate, due to the media story-line that he is somehow a ‘maverick.’ Straight-talk express ended years ago, he is way out of step with America on Iraq (wants a ton more troops to be sent in), which can only become a bigger issue. Major weak spot among conservatives is immigration; he has been quoted as saying the border fence that the conservative base wants is the least effective way to stop illegal immigration.

Mitt Romney (Massachusetts governor)

Status: Making all the right moves, rumored to announce on January 8th.

Retiring as Governor in January. Has a major gay problem- supported gay equality when trying to be elected and in office, more recently has swung hugely conservative on this issue. Also has similar issues with his immigration and abortion stances, which will not sit well with the GOP base.

Newt Gingrich (Former Clinton-era House Speaker)

Status: Personal statements suggest he will wait until fall ‘07 and then jump in if nobody has a clear lead

One affair, two divorces, will not sit well with “family values” crowd. His heydays were in the 1990s, and ended with his resignation as House Speaker while deeply unpopular. Made a name for attacking Clinton, failed ‘contract with America’ won’t be what he’s remembered for.

Sam Brownback (Senator from Kansas)

Status: Formed exploratory committee.

Forget that latino vote that the GOP has been half-heartedly courting if Brownback is chosen as their nominee (he has a Pat Buchanan-eseque stance on the issue, along with some whacko conspiracy theories about Bush trying to merge the USA and Mexico and Canada). Embodies the term “conservative Christian” in a way that nobody in the Bush Administration ever has.

Tom Tancredo (House Representative from Colorado)

Status: Formally announced

Does the man care about anything other than immigration? His “America is full, it’s time to start deporting the Mexicans” racist bullshit will not float with anyone other than the racist conservatives. (No, that is not an exact quote, but that’s pretty much where he stands)

Duncan Hunter (House Representative from California)
Status: Says he wants to run, has formed Committee.

High unknowns (nobody knows who he is), and even if he got off the ground, you can expect reporters would start looking very closely into his involvement with the Duke-Cunningham-MZM-prostitutes-and-pistols-for-Pentagon-contracts scandal.

Mike Huckabee (Arkansas Governor)

Status: Visited NH, rumored to have told friends he’ll run, assumed to be running.

Aside from being a Christian fundamentalist in the truest sense of the phrase, there’s very little dirt on Huckabee. He wants to teach creationism in schools and may have some connections with some whacky group called “Reclaim America for Christ.” Obviously if he gets very far on the campaign trail, we’ll hear more about this angle, but there’s really not that much else there.

George Pataki (New York Governor)

Status: Will NOT run

Probably too moderate on social issues for the Republican base (like Giuliani), also less well known. Environmental stance will not make traditionally-Republican big business donors happy, and they will put their money elsewhere, should they become involved in the primary.

Tommy Thompson (Former Wisconsin Governor, Bush Admin Health & Human Services Secretary)

Status: Formed exploratory committee.

Tommy who? Exactly. No chance. He’s gotten almost no press for filing committee papers- a sure sign that he’s going nowhere. He isn’t even a third-tier candidate at this point, really..

Jim Gilmore (Former Virginia Governor)

Status: Announced that he will form an exploratory committee.

Jim who? Says he may run because the race needs what he calls a “Reagan conservative.” Among those who know of him, Gilmore is known for being very anti-taxes, but then again, nobody outside of Virginia has ever heard of him.

Filed under: Presidential election, Z-TDB Blog