The Daily Background

As promised earlier, I’m gonna talk a little bit about recent polls in key Senate races. There is some question over how much polls right before elections are worth, but they’re what we’ve got so that’s what we’ll talk about.

Bottom line: Democrats are either favored or there is no change in 4 key Senate races. Democrats need to pick up 6 seats to take the Senate. Pennsylvania is pretty much already in the bag, along with Ohio. Montana and Rhode Island are also expected to swing Democratic. Tennessee, Missouri, and Virginia are seats that Democrats are targetting, while they have to defend the New Jersey seat, which is the only real possibility for a Republican pickup (although that is looking safer for Dem incumbent Bob Menendez every day). On to specifics…

Tennessee- Republican Bob Corker has a precariously small lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr in this open seat to replace retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, according to recent polls. The new Zogby poll, released today shows Corker leading in a dead heat, 49%-48%, while the new CNN/OPR poll shows a wider gap of Corker at 52% and Ford Jr with 44% which is suspicious to me. Rasmussen shows the race virtually tied with Corker at 49% and Ford Jr at 47%.

Virginia- CNN/OPR shows Democratic challenger widening his edgy lead over Republican incumbent George Allen 50%-46%. The new Zogby has 51%-47%. This is great news for Webb, who was languishing below Allen in the lower fourties mid-month. I’m feeling more confident about the possibility of Virginia going “blue” right now than I ever have before. Not a given at all, but it just might happen, and it’d be a major coup if it did.

Missouri- This race is at a standstill, with Republican incumbent Jim Talent and Demoratic challenger Claire McCaskill tied at 49% each in the new CNN/OPR poll. The new Zogby shows Talent barely one point ahead, easily within the margin of error at 48%-47%.

New Jersey- Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez is widening his lead over his formimdible Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr, with a lead of 7 points in the latest CNN/OPR which shows candidates at 51%-44% repectively. The new Zogby poll shows Menendez leading 48%-42%.

Filed under: oh six midterm Elections, Z-TDB Blog